HockeyDirt's Playoff Predictions: Round One

Everyone else is doing it, so why not us? So goes the thinking behind HockeyDirt's 2006 first round Stanley Cup predictions. We've expended so much hot air on the issue in the dressing rooms and bars of the nation that we think we should share our educated guesses with you.

So here goes. More to follow!

Ottawa vs. Tampa Bay: Having routed the Lightening during the regular season series (4-0) Ottawa will look to continue to take advantage of Tampa's weakness in the back end. While Tampa has plenty of firepower, John Graham and Sean Burke have not stepped up this season and leave coach John Tortorella with a hole that he cannot plug, ever since the Bhulin Wall left town (and subsequently crumbled in Chicago). Tampa will be left to try to beat Ottawa in barnburner games of high scores. However, Ottawa's formidable defence squad, which includes five Olympians, will further frustrate Tortorella's Tortured by shutting down his big guns of St. Louis, Lecavalier and Richards. Barring a Patrick Lalime-like meltdown by Ray Emery, the Senators will probably do a fair job of keeping the biscuit out of the basket. This should be one of the most exciting and freewheeling playoff series in years.

HockeyDirt's pick: Ottawa in five.

The story behind the story: How's this for uncomfortable? Tampa Bay d-man Dan Boyle grew up in Ottawa, where his parents still live. The majority of his parents’ friends and neighbours are Senators fans.

Buffalo vs. Philadelphia:  Will Bob Clarke ever appreciate the value of a great goaltender? Seems Clarkey has once again built a great team with less than great goaltending, and this will spell the end for the Flyers in their series against the speedy Sabres. While the Flyers are equipped with a few stud defenceman, the ability of the Sabres to roll several fast and high scoring lines will eventually poke holes in Philadelphia’s defensive wall. On the other hand, if the Forsberg/Gagne duo can slip by Buffalo’s middle of the road defence and come up big, the Flyers stand a chance. Of course, this depends on Forsberg’s finicky health. HockeyDirt’s pick: The waterbugs will win.

Sabres in six.

The story behind the story: Before the USA Olympic hockey team was selected in December, the names of four goalies were being bandied about as possible selections – Tampa’s John Graham, the Islanders’ Rick DiPietro, Philly’s Robert Esche and Buffalo’s Ryan Miller. At the time, Esche made a statement in the media that one of the four should not be considered as he was not even an NHL calibre goalie, and the general thought among the media was that Esche was casting his disparaging remarks at Miller. It will be interesting to see how the Esche/Miller duel plays out in the first round. As they say, revenge is a dish best served cold. Where better than on a sheet of ice?

Calgary vs. Anaheim: The match-up we fondly like to refer to as Iggy vs. Giggy. I must say, we’ve had a difficult time understanding Calgary this year. They allowed only 200 goals against, and scored only 218. Only two teams scored less than Calgary - pitiful Chicago and St. Louis, both basement dwellers, yet Calgary wins their division? Then again, no one allowed fewer goals against. Now here’s the hard part to understanding Cowtown’s boys in red: defensive hockey is supposed to be boring, right? And Calgary obviously plays defensive hockey. But you know what? They’re not boring. They’re exciting. The play defensive hockey not by playing the trap or the left wing lock, rather, they play defensive hockey by playing a physical game and having a great goaltender. Beat ‘em up and let Kipper stop the pucks seems to be the modus operandi of Calgary. Anaheim too boasts a decent netminder in J.S. Giguere, though, with average statistics, Giggy has not shown this year that he has the form that he did in ‘03 when he took the Ducks to the final and won the Conn Smythe. It looks like the Ducks are a much more balanced team this year than they were in ‘03 and will not have to rely so heavily on Giguere. However, the Ducks haven’t exactly been lighting it up this year and will probably need more firepower than they’ve demonstrated in the regular season to overcome the Flames. Finally, the Flames are generally recognized as having among the best defensive squad in the league, and the team has been playing playoff type hockey since October. They’re ready to take and dish the hits and play uber-intense hockey for 60 minutes. No adjustment needed for the playoffs, and this give the Flames an edge.

HockeyDirt’s pick: Flames in seven agonizingly close games.

The story behind the story: Isn’t the whole world of hockey-fandom rooting for a return of the raucous Red Mile and related revelry? Every sports team should be so lucky to have a fan base like that of the Flames.

Montreal vs. Carolina:  Flash back 20 years to the spring of 1986.  Stop watching that Robert Palmer video.  Some young goaltender with a very Irish first name and a very French last name steps up and shuts down all in his path.  Habs win.  The Canadiens may not go all the way with Cristobal Huet, but they can and will bump off the Hurricanes.  Huet comes in with 7 shutouts in only 36 games.  Check out a list of past Selke trophy winners for best defensive forward.  Bob Gainey won it 4 times, more than anyone else.  His nearest rival?  Guy Carbonneau, who took home the hardware 3 times.  Is it any wonder that since the two of them moved behind the Montreal bench the Canadiens have become a very sound defensive team? 

The Canes have had a marvellous season, but Gerber comes in with virtually the same amount of playoff experience as Huet - none.  Carolina won't have Erik Cole - the ultimate Hab killer.  Cole is expected to miss all of the playoffs with a neck injury.  As good as Eric Staal is, he is a minus-8 player on a +34 team, a team that came in second in its conference, meaning he ain't all that.  As a minus player it is more likely that Montreal will score when he is on the ice than it is that he will score himself.   The one player in this series who has the ability to dominate more than any other is Alex Kovalev.  As Kovalev likes to remind people - he has never lost in the first round.  Montreal ranks 5th in the league in power play efficiency, Carolina 17th. 

Hockeydirt's pick: Huet for Montreal in 6 in 2006

The story behind the story:  The Habs have karma on their bench.  Since World War II (with one exception), in every year ending in 6 Montreal has won the Cup.  The lone exception?  1996.  That year Colorado was led to the promised land by former Hab goalie Patrick Roy, and former Hab captain Mike Keane, so it was kinda like Montreal won that one too.  As if that's not enough, the Canadiens have the letters "CH" on their jerseys, this year that will stand for Cristobal Huet!

Dallas vs Colorado:  Few teams can boast the solid, balanced attack of the Dallas Stars.  Despite the fact that their top scorer (Mike Modano) ranks 33rd, Dallas scored enough to finish with 112 points.  In addition to Modano, Dallas looks to veterans Jere Lehtinen, Jason Arnott, Brendan Morrow (who led the entire league in hits with 234) & Sergei Zubov for offensive production.  Jussi Jokinen (Ollie's kid brother) is famous for his shootout prowess, but the young Finn also found the net in regulation, finishing with 17 goals and 38 assists.  The Dallas defense is led by Sergei Zubov.  With 71 points, Zubov is coming off his best season since 1993, when he was a New York Ranger.  Dallas made a key move at the trade deadline when they grabbed Willie Mitchell from the Wild. Mitchell plays a smart, relentless physical game and brings alot of stability to the blueline.  For the first time in years' the Avalanche were in some trouble of missing the playoffs, but finished in 7th, a mere 3 points up on the 9th place Canucks. 

In typical Pierre Lacroix fashion, the Avs were in the middle of one of the season's biggest trades when they acquired the then-injured Jose Theodore from Montreal.  Jose started Colorado's last three games, losing two in regulation and the third in OT, hardly an auspicious debut.  The Avalanche can score and the return of Alex Tanguay will help.  Rookie Marek Svatos remains out of the lineup with a fractured shoulder. On the blueline, Rob Blake is playing his best hockey of the season while Patrice Brisbois has shaken off his Montreal troubles and turned in a solid season (10G, 28A).  Both Dallas and Colorado have a nice mix of veterans (led by Modano & Sakic) and rising young stars.  The separator is Marty Turco.  With 41 wins, and a 2.55 GAA, Turco gives Dallas a  chance to win in every game. Barring a rapid return by Theodore to his earlier Hart-winning form, Dallas' edge in net will make the difference. 

Hockeydirt's pick:  Dallas in 6

The story behind the story: One player who will surely be motivated by this matchup is Colorado center Pierre Turgeon.  Turgeon was placed on waivers by Dallas in the summer of 2005.  This season Turgeon joined the 500 goal club.  The two coaches in this series know each other well.  Dallas' Dave Tippett and Colorado's Joel Quenneville were teammates for 5 years in Hartford.  (Poolie tip:  Colorado has brought up Wojtek Wolski, who played most of the season with Brampton in the OHL, notching 47G, 81A in 56 games.  Wolski is practicing with Colorado's 2nd line.)

Nashville vs San Jose:  The poor Predators.  First the draw the surging Sharks, 8-1-1 in their last 10 games.  As it that's not enough, the head into the playoffs without their best player, Tomas Vokoun.  To be fair, Vokoun's replacement, Chris Mason is not a fresh faced kid.  Mason is 30 years old, and he's kicked around the Predator's organization for 7 years, but he's only appeared in 44 NHL games, over half of them this season.  Mason is on a roll, having won his last 6 starts and he enters the post-season with a sparling .913 save percentage.  The Predator's problems are compounded by a groin injury to the speedy Steve Sullivan.  Sullivan will play, but his effectiveness may be limited by the injury.  Nashville's defence is underrated, especially with the deadline deal for Brendan Witt, but the loss of Marek Zidlicky leaves a hole on the blueline, especially since "Z" quarterbacks the Pred's PP. 

There is little to add to the gushing reviews Joe Thornton is receiving for his San Jose performance.  By grabbing the league scoring title in the last week of the season, Big Joe probably eclipsed Jagr in the race for the Hart, especially since he lifted Cheechoo to the goal-scoring title.  San Jose's defence features Kyle McLaren, who handles most of the hitting, plus the every stead Scott Hannan and the emerging Tom Preissing (11G, 32A, +17). Evgeni Nabakov started the season as the Sharks number one goalie, but he's lost the job to Vesa Toskala, 23-2-4 in his last 29 starts. 

HockeyDirt picks:  Sharks in 4

The story behind the story:  Does size matter?  This series may answer that question as it pits one of the leagues biggest teams (San Jose) vs the league's smallest (Nashville). The Preds have three 5' 8" players, the Sharks have 8 who are 6' 3" or bigger.   

Detroit vs Edmonton:  On the one hand the Oilers have to be happy they're not facing the Dallas in the openning round of the playoffs after having been eliminated by the Stars in their last five playoff appearances.  On the other hand, they draw the President's Cup winning Red Wings.  Everybody's heard about all the points the Wings accumulated while beating up on the Blue Jackets, Blues & Hawks, but this is still a very good, very deep and very experienced team.  How good?  The Wings led the league in scoring, and trailed only Calgary in goals against.  They have the league's most effective power play & the third best penalty killing record.  Manny Legace gets little respect, but he comes in to the playoffs with 37 wins, a 2.19 GAA and a blistering .915 save %.  While he is not flashy, Nik Lidstrom defines what an NHL defenceman should be, and he seems to get better every year.  On top of all that, the Wings are motivated to win by Captain Steve Yzerman.  With the possibility that Stevie's playing days are numbered, the Wings are looking to give him one more chance to hoist the Cup. 

The Oilers didn't exactly back in to the playoffs, but were is not for late-season swoons by Vancouver and LA, the Oilers 5-4-1 finish would have put them on the golf course.  The Oilers "big" deadline move to acquire Dwayne Roloson (8-7-1 as an Oiler) has been, at best, a mild success.  The Oilers brought in Pronger & Peca in the offseason, but both have had inconsistent seasons.  Sergei Samsonov gives Edmonton more scoring punch and speed, but it just won't be enough to stop the Detroit juggernaut. 

HockeyDirt's Pick:  Red Wings in 5

The story within the story:  If Stevie Y picks up 15 playoff points he will move into 5th place on the list of alltime playoff point getters - passing former Oiler Glenn Anderson.  With 17 assists he can pass Doug Gilmour and move into 5th on the assists list. 

Comments

I think the guy who Robert Esche was referring to was John Grahame, not Ryan Miller. The rumor is that Grahame is not particularly well liked anyway, and besides, look at his previous record in Boston....

[CW]

Was it not the Klingon's who came up with the saying "Revenge is a dish best served cold"? I am not sure they ever played hockey on the Klingon homeworld.

[CW]

Sorry my mistake

Pierre Ambroise Francois Choderios de LaClos (1741-1803). He originally said it in French in his 1782 book Les Liasons Dangereuses: "La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froid,"

from http://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/9/messages/813.html

[TJ O'Connor]

Thanks for the phraseological correction Webby! And for the record, I believe Pierre Ambroise Francois Choderios de LaClos invented hockey as well.

[Somebody]

Jussi and Olli Jokinen are not related. Just happens to be a fairly common last name (=Rivers).

[Spanky]

You're picks suck.

[n/a]

i think edmonton will win against detroit. the oilers physical strength matches the wings skill. besides it wouldnt be the first time the wings have been taken out early by an underdog team.