Sinister Shooters Score

The New York Times recently noted the disparity between left and right-handed defencemen on the power play.  The top 11* PP scorers among NHL defencemen are left-handed shots.  Statistical fluke?  How is this explained? 

Part of the answer lies in the simple fact that there are far more left-handed shooters in the league.  Roughly two thirds (64.7%) of active players, excluding goalies, shoot left. 

The overwhelming majority of NHL goalies catch with their left hand, and hold their stick with their right, and this is probably a key to the success of lefties from the point.  Of the 54 NHL goalies that have appeared in at least 10 games this year, 49 catch left-handed, only 5 are righties (DiPietro, Garon, Khabibulin, Theodore and Vokoun).  Shots coming in from the left point have a better chance to beat goalies on the stick side or through the five hole than shots from the right point.

Statistics for 2003-04 do not reveal the same sinister bias.  Of the leading 20 defencemen PP scorers, 13  were lefties, about what would be expected given the lefty/righty split among all players.  Perhaps the 4 foot expansion of the offensive zone, accomplished by moving the goal line 2 feet closer to the end boards and the blue line 2 feet back has altered shooting angles in a way that gives an additional advantage to left-handed point shooters, but I can think of no reason why this would be true. 

*McCabe, Visnovsky, Lidstrom, Kaberle, Mara, Timonen, Phaneuf, Liles, Jovanovski, Redden, Zhitnik

Comments

[David Johnson]

Who are the right handed shooters in 2003-04 who were among the top 20? Is there a reason why those defensemen are no longer producing as in 2003-04 (i.e. changed teams)? Aucoin, who had a career year in 2003-04 and who switched teams and was injured for part of this season, is probably among them. Rob Blake is another and without Forsberg the Avalanche PP isn't quite as potent (Blake is in the top 20 in overal scoring though). Zubov is another right handed defensemen who is in the top 20 in scoring, just not PP scoring, as is Zidlicky and Salo (who also moved to a less offensive team). My gut is that it is mostly coincidence.

[MT]

The righties in the top 20 in 2003-04 were: Jackman, Kubina, Blake, Zidlicky, Hill, Sopel & Van Ryn. I think coincidence is certainly at play, but wonder if coaches have adjusted or will adjust PPs to try to generate more shots from left point. Conversely some may respond defensively to take away that particular shot. I believe some teams now play the Leafs a little differently to minimize McCabe's one-timer chances on the PP.

[David Johnson]

Looking at those names I think it is just coincidence that this year has so many fewer righties than last year. Jackman hasn't been used on the PP as much as last year because of the Gonchar acquisition but has a solid 22 points in just 31 games played. Hill is playing on a less offensive team this year (Florida). As is Sopel. Should Blake and Zidlicky get a couple more points and they would be in the top 20.

But yes, the bigger offensive zone should provide additional challenges to the penalty killing team. It will be more difficult for them to cut off both the point shot and the cross ice pass for the one-timer. Some teams have pur more pressure on McCabe trying to stop his hard, accurate shot. The counter to that is set up O'Neill, Tucker or Czerkawski in front of the net or in the slot. If the defensemen are high, there is more room down low.

It would be interesting to analyze how many goals are scored on the rush and how many are scored after some period of play in the offensive zone. Doing so would allow us to better evaluate which rule changes have made the bigger impact. Increasing the size of the offenive zone or getting rid of the red line and opening up the neutral zone. Of course, I have no idea where we can get that kind of data.

[heffer]

Wicked